India’s Strategic Landscape for the 21st Century

                                  

This piece will seek to analyze and examine India’s strategic position vis-à-vis its neighbours and its broader engagement with the world over different issues.

The simultaneous rise of India and China over the last two decades has completely altered the strategic landscape of the region and brought the Indian Ocean Region(IOR) countries into sharp focus. Asia today has some of the most dangerous flashpoints of the world. It is the battleground for struggle against Jihadi forces and the centre of some of the bitterest ethnic conflicts. It has a number of nuclear powers living in close proximity with relations between them perennially on the edge. Add to it the intense conflict of interest over resources- oil, metals, minerals and now water- to meet the voraciously growing appetite of prospering populations and one finds oneself caught in a vortex difficult to escape.

India and China:

The rising prosperity of the world’s two most populous nations, India and China, has led to a manifold spurt in demand for raw materials to feed the growth engine. Both countries have sought to secure energy supplies for the long-term by investing in oil-fields and oil companies abroad- whether in Central Asia or Africa. The fight for coal has intensified after China turned a net importer of the commodity, both countries slugging it out in Indonesia, South Africa and Australia. Coal is desperately needed to feed the thermal power plants which are still the main vehicles for power generation owing to their cost-effectiveness. Chinese companies have been aggressively buying stakes in the biggest mines and mining companies themselves the world over. The state-backed behemoths with the full backing of government funds are more than a match for any private company the world over and have leveraged this advantage to the hilt by outbidding the latter everywhere. The biggest oil companies in the West find themselves unable to compete with Chinese companies, which sweeten the deal by offering cheap Chinese state-backed credit, soft loans and investment in the host country’s infrastructure development. The Western companies are further constrained by law to not engage in business with pariah states and autocratic rulers whereas the Chinese with their policy of “non-interference in a sovereign country’s affairs” hardly blink an eye in sealing deals with them. India on the other hand, has so far chosen to rely on soft power to gain influence, seeking to gather the goodwill of the general populace rather than the benevolence of rulers.

For all its might, China still sees India as a potential and the only threat in the region to its great power status. It has sought to checkmate India through its now well-known “String-of-Pearls” strategy under which it is building a string of ports and bases in the Indian Ocean region to surround India. Gwadar in Baluchistan(Pakistan), Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Chittagong in Bangladesh, bases around the Andamans and a newly-announced naval base in the Seychelles are a cause of great alarm for India. As Robert Kaplan points out in his book “Monsoon”, Gwadar on the Makran Coast of Pakistan will allow China to keep a check on security of oil supplies coming through the Strait of Hormuz, Hambantota will allow it to keep an eye as the oil moves through the Indian Ocean sea lanes towards the Strait of Malacca and the Seychelles naval base will allow it to pre-empt any naval blockades in the Malacca Strait, undoubtedly the most vulnerable chokepoint in the route. Chittagong port in Bangladesh and the Sittwe port in Myanmar will secure the supplies coming from Africa through the Bay of Bengal to Myanmar from where they will be transported via long pipelines to China. Gwadar is also rumored to have a listening post to keep track of Indian activities in the Arabian Sea. The growing might of the Chinese navy with the establishment of an underground nuclear submarine base in the Hainan province and the recently launched aircraft-carrier don’t do anything to inspire confidence, further deepening Indian suspicions of Chinese intentions. The Chinese navy has begun flexing its might in the region by engaging in tense stand-offs with Indian naval vessels, engaging in a high-level diplomatic spat with Japan over Senkaku (Diayou for the Chinese) islands(and thereby cutting off supplies of rare-earth metals for a long period) and claiming rights over vast swathes of the South China Sea by defining it as a “core-interest” all of a sudden.  The audacious attempt to warn India against signing an off-shore oil-and-gas exploration agreement with Vietnam by defining the territory as “disputed” underscores its seriousness in making these claims.

As noted defense expert Brahma Chellaney points out in his new book, water is another potential area of conflict in the coming decades. The rising demand for food and growing populations in India and China have brought freshwater supplies under tremendous pressure. With surface-water supplies dwindling owing to damming, pollution and receding of glaciers, groundwater resources are being tapped at a rate exponentially higher than replenishment rates. Water tables have gone down, making it increasingly difficult and energy-intensive to extract further. Also, at these depths, replenishment doesn’t take place so it’s a permanent loss. China is in a unique position whereby control over Tibet gives it control over origins of almost all the major rivers in the region that represent a big chunk of total freshwater supplies in the region. Its obsession with building large dams over these rivers(like Brahmaputra) has left lower-riparian states like India at a significant disadvantage owing to reduced flows, besides resulting in adverse environmental consequences for China itself. Its Three Gorges Dam, touted as the biggest engineering achievement since the Great Wall, is a case in point. The renewed Chinese claims over Arunachal Pradesh have been made with an eye on its bountiful freshwater reserves.

Militarily speaking, there is hardly any parity between India and China. The latter has the world’s largest standing army, a fleet of over 70 submarines- most of them nuclear-powered, a superior number of fighter aircraft, inter-continental ballistic missiles, a nuclear arsenal whose size can only be guesstimated and most importantly mind-boggling infrastructural and logistical capabilities that enable it to transfer almost 4.5 lakh troops(thus outstripping Indian forces 3:1) to the border in double quick time than India.  More significantly, its defense spending is assumed to be almost double of what it officially declares every year, the declared amount itself being twice the Indian expenditure.

The struggle for resources, aggressive Chinese moves in the region coupled with its unwillingness to come to the negotiating table to resolve contentious issues including  those related to borders, provocative moves such as stationing of troops in the PoK region and issuance of stapled visas to Kashmir residents make co-operation between the two countries difficult. In absence of a proper dispute resolution mechanism, friction is bound to increase. Heavens forbid, if this leads to military exchange in future, the consequences could be catastrophic given the nuclear armed status of the two nations. It is therefore in the interest of both countries to seek a common minimum ground, engage in diplomatic exchanges, refrain from whipping up nationalistic rhetoric and make co-operation rather than competition the lynchpin of their relationship in the foreseeable future.

India and Pakistan:

Any amount of writing space would be insufficient to do justice to the intricate relationship these arch-rivals share. However, I shall try my best to touch upon broad contours and the plausible way ahead.

Pakistan till date hasn’t brought 26/11 perpetrators to book and continues to shield, fund and encourage them. Extremism has become a Frankenstein’s Monster over which the military establishment exerts only partial control now. Some of the groups have turned against the government and the Army there in retaliation to the perceived co-operation they give to the US. Nevertheless, the terror infrastructure is still intact, terrorists continue to be pushed across the border and efforts are being made to set up indigenous terror groups in India by indoctrinating and misguiding youth through propaganda. The latter, Pakistan hopes, would give it room for deniability whenever a terror strike takes place. Even with its own economy in shambles and on a lifeline of US-supplied aid, the maverick Generals continue to harp on the India threat. Alarmed by Indian efforts in Afghanistan to improve infrastructure, it has repeatedly tried to sabotage such efforts for fear of losing influence in a region it relies on for “strategic depth” in its war doctrine. Even though nearly bankrupt, it continues to grow its nuclear arsenal at an astonishing rate. Amusingly, it seeks to blame India and the US for all its ills. It accuses India of funding, aiding  and abetting separatist movements in Balochistan while shamelessly seeking to fan insurgency in Assam and supplying money and arms to Naxalites. India is blamed for depriving Pakistan of its rightful share of water under the Indus Water Treaty which is in-fact, perhaps the most generous treaty ever formulated between an upper and a lower riparian state. All of this when its own former foreign minister admits that the problem is one of inefficient use and large-scale wastage than that of availability.

A country where the Army is the only properly functioning institution, democracy has never been given a real chance, feudal landlords control the economy and dominate the political space and where blasts are the norm rather than an exception, cannot be but a tinderbox case. The civilian government has no real authority to negotiate on vital contentious issues and its Army shies away from direct engagement to keep up the façade of democracy. Platitudes apart, making any real progress has thus proved impossible.

To hedge its bets against India, Pakistan has continued to draw closer to its “all-weather” friend China. The latter helped Pakistan achieve nuclear capability, transferred blueprints of ballistic missile systems and continues to supply a large chunk of its military hardware including fighter jets. It has even been audacious enough to disregard Nuclear Suppliers’ Group(NSG) rules in supplying additional nuclear reactors ostensibly for nuclear power generation. In order to checkmate Indian in the Arabian Sea, Pakistan has invited China to formally set up a naval base at Gwadar. Given the closeness of this relationship, one finds it quite curious that China provided only a pittance in the form of aid to Pakistan when it got ravaged by floods last year. On the other hand, western nations including the US pitched in generously almost instantaneously.

With US forces slated to withdraw completely from Afghanistan by end of 2014, competition for influence in Afghanistan is only set to intensify further. India and Pakistan apart, China and Iran too are jostling for space. China has already won lucrative mining contracts for the new found Afghan mineral wealth and rides piggyback on the security provided by international forces. To deter India, it’s only to be expected that Pakistan will indulge in more attacks in Afghanistan as well as inside India. Pakistan perceives that a strong Afghan National Army trained by India is not in its interest and it would like to do everything in its power to become the training provider itself.

All in all, predicting the trajectory of India-Pakistan relations for anytime beyond the visible horizon would be foolhardy. Since the tide of terrorism is not expected to abate anytime soon, the major factors for deviation from the predictable are likely to be the domestic political situation in Pakistan, the relations between the Army and the government and the way the Afghan end-game plays out over the next couple of years. The challenge would be keep the relations from deteriorating beyond a point in order to avoid an all-out war. An attack on the lines of 26/11 would constrict political space for leaders on both sides who’ll not only find peace a difficult proposition to sell to their people, but may be obliged to give in to nationalistic demands to teach the adversary a lesson. Civilian led efforts to promote ties in the area of culture, arts and music may be the best bet ahead in order to keep emotions and tempers in check.

India and the Rest of the World:

The Indo-Russian partnership has stood the test of time even after momentous events such as the break-up of the Soviet Union. Occasional friction on account of poor quality of military hardware or the Russian propensity to go back on contracts to negotiate for better terms mid-way through a deal have not deterred leaders from both sides. Joint projects such as the design, development and production of the fifth generation fighter aircraft, the PAK T-50, and the joint development of cruise missile BrahMos are two examples of ongoing collaboration. Indian companies have also acquired significant stakes in the development of oil and gas fields in Siberia with an eye on energy security. Relations are likely to be cordial in the foreseeable future.

The evolution of the India-US partnership over the last decade, underpinned by the Nuclear Deal, has been a seminal event. The growing unease with Chinese intentions in the region has brought the two nations closer, both of whom have an interest in maintaining the freedom of navigation in international waters. Countries in the Asia-Pacific region such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Philippines, intimidated by China, have sought to come closer to India and US. India and US continue to iron out differences, even as India seeks to avoid being counted as an outright ally of the latter, for fear of inviting China’s displeasure.

 A seat at the High Table:

Although India has repeatedly sought to stake a claim over permanent membership of the Security Council at the UN, it would first have to demonstrate an ability to take unambiguous stands over critical issues rather than choosing to sit on the fence. Without it, few would be ready to consider India’s candidature seriously. India has adopted an incoherent approach to the Iran issue and maintained silence on the Arab Spring and the Libyan affair. It has also shown little spine in dealing with the Chinese, giving in to unreasonable demands to clamp down on the Tibetan protests and Dalai Lama’s activities. Chinese provocations in the form of issuance of stapled visas and its protests over the Indian PM’s Arunachal visit have not been responded to in a tit-for-tat manner despite ample existence of diplomatic vulnerabilities at the Chinese end such as its annexation of and atrocities in Tibet and Xinjiang. A nation unwilling to stand up for itself can earn little respect from others, let alone be entrusted with the responsibility of protecting the security interests of weaker countries. India has rejected the notion of a permanent membership without the veto power but it needs to ask itself whether it has demonstrated enough spine and leadership capabilities to earn this privilege.

Is it time to rethink Democracy ? -I

The ruckus and the pandemonium that was witnessed in the Bihar Assembly today has become a routine affair in the country's elected bodies, whether Municipal Corporation bodies, State Assemblies or the Parliament itself. Members throw mikes, slippers and just about anything and everything within their reach; brandish wads of currency notes in the House; push, shove, punch and kick each other and then brag about their "feats" in front of cameras. They are audacious and impudent enough to cloak their actions in the veneer of right to freedom of speech and expression and most ironically - DEMOCRACY.

It's difficult to pin-point a precise starting point for this sorry state of affairs, for each and every link in the chain only serves to reinforce and strengthen the preceding. The rot sets in with the very process of electing representatives. No election can be won without pumping in massive sums of money on campaigning, the costs are incurred not just on printing of campaign material but also on collecting crowds for rallies and gatherings and on cronies who carry out campaign management for the candidate.The prescribed limits for expenditure are nothing but a joke, enforcement is either lacking or in case of conviction, toothless. Where does all this money come from? In part from party funds and in part from the candidate's own pocket. Who gives these funds to the party? Corporate houses, businessmen with deep pockets and crime-lords are some of the much publicized sources but not the only ones. A large chunk of the cash also comes from government officials paying huge bribes to the powers to-be for plum postings in different departments. Check-posts at various borders invariably collect large amounts from businessmen whose trucks are at the mercy of check-post officials. Fines are collected not only for genuine offences but also under false pretexts. Businessmen are ready to pay in order to avoid undue harassment and opportunity loss of business arising out of seizure of vehicles. And hardly any of these fines find their way into state coffers for they are actually bribes. A percentage is retained by the officials and the rest is sent to politicians who in turn retain a percentage and deposit the rest into party coffers which fund election costs. Businessmen recoup their costs from the end-user of the raw materials or the finished products which drives up market prices of the goods. A very recently publicized case involved an illegal iron-ore mining scam to the tune of 60000 crore in Karnataka where all political outfits at different points of time have grown fat on the earnings. The ruling BJP government at first tried to muzzle investigations by the Lokayukta by tying down his hands and taking away prosecution powers and when the issue became a hot potato owing to the latter's resignation in protest, reinstated and reposed full faith in him. The opposition led by the Congress wants the issue investigated by the CBI - not just because CBI is under Congress' control at the moment, but also out of fear that the Lokayukta will go after politicians of all hues whereas the CBI can be used for selective targeting. The past three assembly elections in Karnataka have been funded majorly out of illegal iron-ore export earnings. The same story is true for every state in India, with iron being replaced by other commodities such as bauxite, zinc, copper and even timber. So the very process of electing representatives festers and nurtures an ecosystem that loots the country of its resources and the citizens of their wealth. And what do we get in return? Abusive hooligans throwing slippers and shoes and putting on an unabashed reality show style display of physical strength.

There is nothing to show that those running the country even understand the enormity or complexities of the problems and issues facing the state, let alone being capable of solving them. The country today finds itself in the middle of a civil war that keeps engulfing more and more districts and states with every passing day. The threat of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism never abates. ISI has built an incredibly vast and complex network of spies, sleeper cells and surrogate organizations in almost every state of the country. Southern states of Karnataka and Kerala increasingly find themselves in the midst of Islamic radicalization of their youth. UP has the largest presence of ISI spies in the country.(You'll find an AK-47 being sold at a paan shop in Azamgarh district of UP.) Certain districts of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are in control of jihadi elements. Kashmir one doesn't even need to talk about. Insurgencies in the north-east are being fueled and festered by the ISI operating from Bangladesh and Nepal. And the most heart-wrenching aspect of each and every of these Hydras is the tacit support of the political establishment- the same which we bring into power by voting for them in elections. Vote bank politics relegate everything else to the background. Religious fanatics, particularly those belonging to the minority communities, are appeased and allowed to carry out their nefarious activities in return for electoral support, the common man be damned! The recent case of a lecturer's hand being chopped off in Kerala by an Islamic party PFI(Popular Front of India) went unpunished with the Congress-led government trying to play down the issue. This party has links and ties with jihadi elements in and outside India as has been revealed by police investigations time and again. Yet, the green signal for taking action is never forthcoming from the political establishment. The state is becoming a hotbed of radical activities but neither the Congress nor the Left seem keen to risk political capital by antagonizing minority communities. If there is one party that has contributed the most to the security ills plaguing the country today, it's the Congress. It has always shown and led the path when it comes to sycophancy and short-term selfish gains, others following suit. To win minority support it scrapped POTA- the only legislation that had any teeth to deal with terrorist activities calling it "draconian","anti-minority", "biased" and a myriad other adjectives. The legislation itself says nothing of the religion of an offender. If an overwhelming majority of the terrorists belong to a particular community,how does that make the legislation "biased"?? Quick to renounce and berate Hindu extremist actions, its leaders try to put a question mark and raise doubts whenever a Muslim terrorist is gunned down by the security forces. Digvijay "foot-in-mouth" Singh calls into question the genuineness of the Batla House encounter in Delhi when on a tour to Azamgarh where the killed SIMI terrorists hailed from. Doesn't matter that the Delhi police force lost its best officer in the encounter. Since the terrorist was a Muslim, it's a crime to have killed him irrespective of the fact that he was behind bombings in Delhi and a wanted man. Not one statement was forthcoming from any of the Congress leaders over revelations by David Headley that Ishrat Jahan was an LeT recruit, something which Narendra Modi has been claiming all along after her death in a police encounter and Congress crying itself hoarse over the issue. Abdul Rehman Antulay, who has long outlived his utility as a politician seeks to resurrect his political fortunes by raising questions over the encounter during the Mumbai attacks. Elements in the government,bureaucracy,judiciary and police are on the payroll of crime gangs,slum lords,smugglers,land and forest mafia and anti-national elements yet we never hear of a conviction or a punishment. If it takes more than two years for a Ajmal Kasab to be handed the death sentence for killing hundreds with sheer impunity in full public and camera glare, there must be something dreadfully wrong with our public institutions. And mind you, the case first goes on to High Court from here and then to the Supreme Court and if both uphold the death sentence the defendant has the option of seeking mercy before the President of India. And going by the government's own claims a decision over the plea can't be taken before clearing the 20-30 petitions already pending(and have been pending for years).
Hail democracy!!

The first part dealt with the issues of electoral malpractices and national security.

The next part will talk about the misuse of democratic rights by miscreants to create more problems for others and the role democracy plays in hindering economic growth and development of the country. All of these are not without consequences for the poor and helpless in the name of whom all of it is done which shall be examined.

On the brink of a Civil War - I

Warning: This post is a very long one and deals with the Naxalite/Maoist movement.There are no photographs to break the monotony of narration so read only if actually interested in the issue.

What served as an immediate trigger for this post was the beheading of a police inspector (an intelligence officer to be precise) from Jharkhand by Naxalites (or Maoists if you please).For the purpose of this post I shall be using the two terms interchangeably for there is no difference between the two. As for the why part, for those who couldn’t care less about the names, I’d suggest that they skip the rest of this particular paragraph which is just some boring history.The term Naxalite is derived from the name of a village called Naxalbari in West Bengal where a peasant movement first started in 1969 under the leadership of Charu Mazumdar in protest against the landlords who treated them inhumanly-long working hours, petty wages, violating their womenfolk etc. The movement gradually spread and the instigators came to be known as Naxalites.They formed a party of their own-the Communist Party of India(Marxist-Leninist) (which didn’t fight polls for they didn’t believe in democracy.As a fact, Communists don’t believe in democracy, their doctrine tells them that democracy is a sham invented by the bourgeois class.).As the movement spread,these people took inspiration from the Chinese leader Mao who had led Communists to power in China in 1948 and gradually came to be known as Maoists. “The Little Red Book” mandated by Mao for all his countrymen became the book of gospels for these people and they subsequently came to be known as Maoists.It’s a different matter altogether that time and again Mao brought nothing but misery to his people with his policies and committed indescribable atrocities right from the time he gained power(and in the course of taking it as well) till the end of his rule.

Time and again we keep coming across news items on the front page describing either Naxal atrocities or stories of encounters between them and the police. What do these people want? Why all this violence and bloodshed? Simply put, the aim of Maoists is the overthrow of the state and replacement of the existing system of governance with their own which envisages justice, equality and empowerment of the poor and the downtrodden etc. In short,the classic utopian Communist dream. And the path they have chosen is that of direct confrontation with the state in keeping with the Maoist doctrine ,”Political power flows from the barrel of a gun.” Hence the violence.

The officer referred to in the beginning was abducted to make a swap deal with the government wherein the extremists wanted the release of Maoist Kobad Ghandy who was arrested a few days back for his activities. The refusal of the government to bend to their demands sounded the death knell for the officer. The Maoists have shown themselves to be what they really are- a bunch of violent maniacs whose activities amount to treason and who need to be reined in immediately.This is not an isolated incident.There have been several more in the past but the Taliban-style beheading is a novelty. Yet, there is no dearth of intellectuals in the civil society who sympathize with their cause and romanticize their movement. True, those who join the movement at the lower rungs are mostly those who have been discriminated against or wronged in one way or the other. Some of them have even seen their own family members killed, raped or tortured by individuals acting on behalf of the state (the police mostly) and failing to get justice have chosen the violent path. But nothing, nothing whatsoever justifies this kind of gory violence against the society. Ours is a democratic country and there are processes and systems in place to ensure checks and balances. Conceded,the system is not always fair and it is far from perfect but democracy is the best option the world has at the moment. The recalcitrance of the Maoists in trying to replace it with a system that has been successful nowhere in the world and has only brought humongous levels of pain and suffering is exasperating. Agreed that a lot of rot has set in with money doing most of the talking but efforts and energies have to be directed towards eliminating that rot and not uprooting the tree.

In my opinion, the main culprits are the leaders of these outfits who encourage and instigate the disgruntled to rebel and take by force what they deserve; for these leaders are mostly educated people who understand the stakes involved and the consequences of fighting the state.They read Communist and Maoist literature, get influenced by it and seek to influence others. They are people like you and me who see the injustice around them in their youth and college years and try to find a way to end it, some go about it in a manner befitting a vibrant democracy and others in a truculent manner, ending up fighting the state with arms. The irony is that those elements in the system who may have perpetrated crimes against people mostly go unpunished.If I have been wronged by an XYZ policeman and take up arms in response what are the chances of me encountering him again in future? My organization won’t go looking for a particular policeman, would it? It is fighting a planned struggle, seeking to weaken the administrative and defence machinery of the state as a whole, why is it going to expend time and money in helping me settle personal scores with a particular individual when all of its members have their own grievances and their own fish to fry? The organization would never be able to work for its stated goals if it sought to serve the selfish interests of its members so it simply doesn’t; it exhorts you to work for the greater good and the larger cause. Would I not have a better shot at justice and bringing the real culprits to book if I followed the democratic path?In all fairness, it may not be possible for everyone to do so thanks to the rotten system but that still doesn't justify killing somebody else to satiate your anger,does it?It would amount to no better than an act of blinded vengeance,cloaked in the veneer of ideology.

To those sympathizing with the cause being fought for,namely the upliftment of the poor I pose this simple question : If the government were taking affirmative action in backward areas and the rebels hampered those would you still continue to be misled by their purported aims? Not if you really have the people's best interests at heart I believe. I say this because time and again Naxals have exposed themselves to be what they are-a bunch of power-hungry animals-by blowing up railway tracks,cell-phone towers,hampering road construction for public transport and eliminating any and every other semblence of infrastructure in the backward areas.Is this their way of helping their "brethren"?

To those who claim local support for these insurgencies, I would like to counter by claiming that the local support is cultivated by these groups for two selfish purposes- to get information on the activities of the government aimed at rooting them out and to get food,shelter and refuge in times of combing operations by the forces.The morality and propriety of having a state-funded militia such as the Salwa Judum may be debatable but you cannot turn a blind eye to the fact that such a force wouldn't even exist were disillusioned tribals happy with the trigger-happy Naxals.It's a false claim that Naxals don't kill civilians, there is ample record and proof to show the contrary-and I'm not even referring to civilian casualties as collateral damages but calculated,cold-blooded torture and murder in the so-called courts of their "Janatana Sarkar".Human rights activists who are out baying for the blood of the police at the drop of the hat,in response to criticism for their one-sided,hypocritical actions, have lately taken to issuing token statements and press releases condemning violence by the rebels as well.But I never see them filing cases, fighting bitter court battles and taking out marches in favour of police even in the most gruesome and unjustified killings of its men.Since they do all of it for their beloved Naxals,if this is not hypocrisy WHAT IS??Are all human rights only for the rebels and not for the security forces?What crimes have the latter committed to deserve such apathy and negligence?That of taking up the responsibility of protecting you and me at the cost of their own lives,working in the most pitiable conditions at meagre wages with outdated weapons and inadequate training?? If you can't be thankful the least you can do is not to degrade their sacrifices. The truth is that while opposition to the state howsoever spiteful will be tolerated,bitter criticism of Naxals is a sureshot invitation to retribution.While all the onus of being lawful and democratic is put on the state,the Naxal cause is justified,their actions seen as not a cause but a consequence of state violence.Let one thing be clear : human rights are for humans and not animals,I could give umpteen bone-chilling accounts of the ruthless and barbaric killing of police personnel by the Naxals but for now please make do with a small sample.

In Ranibodli in March 2007,one of the rooms of the police camp was bolted from outside by the Maoists and petrol bombs thrown inside towards the off-duty,unaware police personnel.Some escaping security men were targeted from tree-tops,killing a total of 55 police officers.As if this couldn't pacify their quest for sadism they laid down IED's(Improvised Explosive Devices)all around the building to hinder even the evacuation of casualties.The charred bodies of the personnel could not be recognized even by their kin. If the perpetrators still manage to win your sympathy and you still feel that they should be arrested and tried rather than be killed on the spot even if unarmed, I personally can only hope that one of you never becomes in-charge of dealing with these animals.

The next post shall deal with the ideal strategy to counter the movement,discussing the development-first versus action-first debate,the actions taken so far by various states,their successes and failures,the road for the future and finally the dire consequences of not dealing with this menace while there is still time.

Reflections on "A Better India,a Better World" - I

I have been reading this fabulous book by Narayana Murthy for the last few days and it's caught enough of my fancy to get me to park my butt on a chair and dissect and analyse it.The book has been divided into ten sections,each dealing with different though frequently overlapping themes.Each section contains a number of lectures broadly pertaining to the sectional theme.I intend to write a multi-part series on the book and this post shall deal with the issues and ideas espoused in the first two sections.

In this book,Murthy deals with the different aspects that one needs to focus on to ensure a better life for each and every Indian citizen and by extension any global citizen.According to Murthy,the key to eradication of poverty lies in the use of entrepreneurship to create jobs on a large scale.Once a believer in communist and socialist ideas,he describes the one incident of his life in 1974 that convinced him of the philosophy he holds dear to his heart.The horrendous treatment meted out to him by guards in the red bastion of Bulgaria(which incidentally,is the only remaining Communist European country even today) merely on suspicion of his critical attitude towards the government purged all affinities for the Left from his mind and made him a proponent of compassionate capitalism.The only thing ironically,that saved him from being thrown into prison for life was the fact that he "belonged to a friendly country called India"(in the 1970s India was still largely socialist).

Murthy emphasizes the need for constant introspection and learning from experience in order to be able to realize one's full potential.The perception that ability is inherent and not developed "leads people to plateau early in life" and become complacent.While he concedes that chance events play a critical role in shaping an individual's career and life,it's only when people know how to seize an opportunity with both hands that they can get best out of fortuitous events.What helps in making this judgement is ultimately experience gained from toiling hard.

While Murthy feels pride in the accomplishments of Indians in various fields,he cautions against arrogance.He asks the reader to dwell upon why India still lags far behind despite having at its disposal all the necessary ingredients for breakneck economic progress-natural and human resources,technology and talent.According to him these factors rank below the spirit of hardwork and honesty,a strong,able and dependable leadership and the elimination of an elitist mindset amongst the powers that-be.To prove his point he gives the excellent examples of Japan and Switzerland which are deprived of ample natural resources.Also the fact that Japan and Germany bounced back from ruin after the second world war in such a short span of time only seeks to reinforce this convicton.

Murthy sharply criticizes the self-righteous attitude of Indians who refuse to learn and adopt the good aspects of other cultures and countries and are a society of people contemptuous of better societies even with our own meagre progress.We continue to dwell in the glory of the past,endlessly boasting about what we gave the world,without feeling the need to continue doing so in the present.Without the humility of showing the willingless to learn from people more advanced than ourselves,we put ourselves in danger of fading into oblivion.We continue to try rationalizing our failures and shirking responsibility.Accountability is as anathema to us as criticism is to China.The more you rise in the hierarchy the less accountable you become.No project gets completed on time,costs keep spiralling multi-fold and the final product is almost always sub-standard or outdated by the time it's ready.To give a fresh and glowing example,the ATV(nuclear submarine)Project that was envisioned and commissioned in the 70's finally delivered its first baby after decades of labor just the last month.And to add insult to injury,it wasn't even Indian technology that achieved it-as tom-tommed by the Prime Minister on the day of launch.The central problem had always been that of miniaturising the nuclear reactor to make it work for a submarine and after two and a half decades of futile efforts,we took help of Russian designs and engineers to achieve it.That the Prime Minister had the arrogance to make such a statement in presence of 130 Russian engineers present at the launch speaks volumes of our incompetence and the proclivity to hide it.Also,the less said about the development of the indigenous figher aircraft Tejas,the better.Defence bungles merit a separate post in themselves(this one I sincerely intend to write very soon!)

Public sector institutions and jobs of those working in them in India are held more sacrosanct than the millions of consumers they are expected to serve.Unreasonable pampering to the extent of eliminating competition from the private sector through direct or indirect means kills entrepreneurial spirit and breeds complacency in these institutions.As it is,India is one of the lowest ranked countries in the ease of doing business where it takes 3 months to get all the necessary clearances to start a business even after you grease the palms of babus at every level.And if you would like to shut down a business,god help you!It takes an average of 10 years to do so,thanks to our archaic bankruptcy and labour laws.Any hint of a labour sector reforms brings together unions cutting across party lines to protest vehemently in one voice,as was recently seen after the presentation of the Union Budget.

The Indians hardly ever give back to society.Individual interests always dominate community interests and result in creation of abysmal public amenities and community spaces.Scant respect and apathy for what doesn't belong to self results in dirty roads,parks and public toilets,piles of garbage and distasteful graffiti on walls of monuments and public facilities.The responsibility for creation and maintenance of public spaces is deemed solely to be that of the government's.Everybody in India wants to be a thinker and not a doer,(that's hypocrisy for me,for even I belong to the same breed I guess :P)preferring to articulate than implement.We conduct innumerable studies,create a plethora of committees and write endless reports-all resulting in zilch at the ground level.

The only way out of our self-inflicted misery,according to Murthy,is discipline-both in thought and action.Discipline in thought pertains to taking decisions in a strictly objective manner,keeping focus on growth and collective good rather than sycophany.The nature of politics in India is such that it is in the interest of the politicians of all hues to keep their vote-banks happy than focus on growth.A society divided on caste,ethnic and religious lines dampens the spirit of even an honest politician or bureaucrat thereby perpetuating misery and backwardness. Discipline in action pertains to commitment towards meeting deadlines and not indulging in corrupt practices.Corruption results in inflated costs,selection of incompetant contractors and below par final products.We get sub-standard roads,ill-built schools,absent and unqualified teachers and low-quality food stuff.These in turn worsen inequality in an already unequal society,result in dissatisied individuals and social unrest in the long run.The Bandra-Worli Sea Link took years to complete whereas in China six such bridges were commissioned at the same time and were up and functioning before this one saw the light of day.Now we discover that it's of limited use to citizens for various practical reasons thanks to short-sightedness of our esteemed policy makers.Nevertheless,all that political parties can think of fighting about at the moment is the name of the bridge.

What makes a great nation is not the availability of resources but the way it chooses to utilize them.Clarity of purpose and razor sharp focus on implementation are the two indispensable elements if we are to realize our destiny and earn respect.These come only from a disciplined and honest approach towards the task.We may either take the nation to dazzling heights of glory by making sacrifices for the greater good or let it sink into abyss for small,selfish interests borne out of narcissistic mindsets.The choice is ours.

Sach Ka Saamna

The game show is barely two weeks old and has already rocked the Parliament!Our so very alert,soaked in "Indian culture" MP's cannot find a better topic to discuss in these difficult times.The country is staring at a drought-like situation,farmers are already crying,drinking water woes plague the nation,industry which was barely recovering from the effects of recession again looks set to be down in the dumps, lakhs are still out of jobs and yet...all of these petty,run-of-the-mill issues can wait while these virtuous, holier-than-cow sages of the modern age go about the onerous task of saving the "Indian culture".Wonder if this phrase ever crosses their minds when they bed prostitutes in their protected,out-of-the-public glare enclaves...

Just for the record,the issue was raked up by a Samajwadi Party MP in the Rajya Sabha. What else can one expect from a party which openly declares English as anathema and is paranoid of computers and all the technology that makes farm-work easier?Of course with the caveat that it doesn't have a problem if the party chief's son gets trained as an Environmental Engineer from a college in Sydney...one's gotta make exceptions once in a while,eh?

Politics apart, the show has definitely been an instant hit with the Indian audience right from the very first episode.I watch it everyday.For those who still don't know,it's the Indianised version of the American show "The Moment of Truth". Participants are asked more than 50 questions in the polygraph test before the actual shooting of the episode and 21 out of those are asked here.So one always knows what to expect in the hot seat.If despite that contestants choose to go ahead I don't think it should be anybody else's problem. Even in the course of the game contestants are repeatedly reminded about their prerogative to call it quits at any point.How much more fairness can you ask for?I'm sure that before signing up, contestants realise the full import of what they're getting into.If despite that they choose to,I think it's the courage of conviction that brings them here.It takes enormous guts to accept your mistakes,secrets,beliefs and convictions in front of the whole world and more than that,in front of your near and dear ones.In a country that believes in keeping its deepest,darkest secrets in the bottom-most drawer of the closet,what is it that's making it flock to the show in drones?Why is it that there hasn't been a dissenting voice from the public over this washing of dirty linen?(I'm not talking of politicians,they don't classify as public except during elections)Is it not because whether we accept it or not,we're all voyeurs at some level?Isn't the itsiest, bitsiest hint of a scandal involving a public figure enough to make us glued to the TV or the net?Forget a public figure,if it's someone you know and you know that your friends know,(confusing,eh? :P)ask yourselves whether or not you go running to tell others about it.Girls are more gossipy but boys aren't all that innocent either.We all want our own houses to be kept sacrosanct but couldn't care less about violating the sanctity of other's.

Whatever the reason for soaring TRP's, I believe every person on the show must've had a reason to be there.The lure of money may've played its part but it's got to be more than just that.It could be a desire to come clean for once and for all to rid self of guilty conscience or a desire to prove to the world one's honesty and integrity.I won't comment upon the accuracy of the polygraph machine whose results are still not admissible as evidence in court but would still implore you to look beyond just that. A criticism being levelled is about the show's potential to break relationships and homes.In response,I'll quote Rajeev Khandelwal,the host,from his blog:

"Also i spoke to Smita Matai a few days back. It was one of the happiest moments of my life when she told me that everyone who walks up to her feels proud to have met her. People on the roads and in multiplexes where she has visited off late do not just recognize her but also acknowledge her courage and confidence. And more then that she and Tony(her husband) have come even more close since the episode was air. Isn't it a reflection of a growing, mature and positive India."


In all fairness to the critics though,the American version of the show has had a mixed impact.Some relationships broke,some got back on track and some got firmly cemented than ever.To know more search on Wiki for "list of the moment of truth episodes".My argument is this: These people chose to be open about their lives and relationships,they wanted their relationships to be built on truth,not deceit.It's a choice they made about the way they wish to lead their lives.And if they were going to go the whole hog,how did it matter if the whole world knew about it in exchange for some moolah?The ones to whom it would really matter would still be their near and dear ones.For the rest,it's just instant gratifiaction of voyeuristic desires.

While the debate doesn't look like it's going to end soon,what with the I&B Ministry serving a show-cause notice to Star Plus,I believe it's a question of choice.Nobody's forcing anyone to go speak the truth.The show is aired at 10:30pm which is a decent enough time to prevent kids from watching the mature content.And oh!I wonder why the Shiv Sena hasn't uttered a word so far...I rather expected them to be ransacking the studio by now.. :P

UID Project:Vision for a new India - II

Continuing from where I left in the last post,let me list out some of the potential stumbling blocks as well as inherent dangers of not taking care of privacy issues.

There are thousands,may be lakhs of villages in India where they still don't have electricity.Even if there is,it's not available most of the time.How then would the card(which I understand,would need a card reader) and its supporting infrastructure i.e computers etc. work in such places?This clearly demonstrates the need for development of power infrastructure in tandem with the UID project.But is this actually possible?Let's see why I personally think it isn't.

In each of its five year plans,the Indian government sets itself a target for power generation capacity addition over the course of the plan period.There hasn't been a single plan period thus far when the added capacity has ever exceeded 50% of the target.In the ongoing plan period,the target has been fixed at 77,000MW but going by the pace of capacity addition,it can be safely assumed that this time's gonna be no better.In contrast,China is adding 1 lakh MW capacity every year in order to meet its burgeoning requirements with a coal fired power plant commencing operations at an average of 1 per week!!But that's a story for another time...What I wish to merely point out is the fact that India isn't becoming energy sufficient for many more years,maybe decades to come.How then would the benefits of the card reach those for whom it has the potential of being nothing short of a life-changer?Aren't these the very people who have been accorded the highest priority in the project?So much so that the pilot project is going to issue cards to those registered under the NREGA and then to everyone else.

There are a number of privacy issues which need to be sorted out.An elaborate policy framework needs to be outlined which would unambiguously specify who exactly is authorised to access the data of citizens.Failure to protect privacy could result in not only some pesky but innocuous calls from telemarketers,it could actually endanger your life.Imagine this data getting into the hands of crime syndicates and the underworld.A rich businessman could end up receiving threatening extortion calls based on the data of his income tax returns.In case of riots,the data could help rioters identify localities and houses of people belonging to a particular community.If that sounds far fetched,consider this.In the Gujarat riots in 2002,Hindu rioters used data obtained from voter lists to identify shops and houses of Muslims and specifically targetted these installations,leaving those belonging to Hindus untouched.This gross misuse of voter lists would've never come to light but
for the fact that the speed and efficiency with which frenzied mobs targetted Muslims,leaving all Hindu properties unscathed made investigators smell a rat.And this isn't an isolated case.Kashmiri pundits,who have been driven out of the valley in lakhs by Islamic fanatics and are now living as refugees in their own country,were a victim of the same plot.In fact,the former are supposed to have derived inspiration from the latter in use of voter lists.These two instances are enough to show what catastrophic and horrifying consequences unprotected data in the public domain could entail.Certainly this is an aspect that cannot be overlooked.

In an article in the TOI,Mr.Swaminathan Ankleswar Aiyar pointed out that Indian bureaucrats have always sought to scuttle any initiative to give power in the hands of the people.They always manage to find loopholes in anything that seeks to bring about transparency and accountability in the system.I'll concede that RTI Act is a glowing exception but then again,bureaucrats continue to make attempts at diluting the law by pressing for exemption of file notings from the purview of the Act.With this mentality,can one trust these babus not to notch up innovative schemes to beat the system and thereby retain their stranglehold on funds and assets?

The most challenging aspect of the project however,in my opinion,is the source for the data Nilekani is going to use to prepare the database.Multiple sources are being tapped-LPG gas connection holders' list(11 crore connections in all,which assuming an average family size of 5 covers 55 crore people-nearly half the population), voter lists,ration card lists,PANs etc.Of these,ration card lists and voter lists have a large number of phantoms and there are a large number of people holding multiple PANs.How does Nilekani propose to weed out those who are either dead or non-existent from these lists?My hunch is that the compulsion for biometric data would eventually weed out these people but nevertheless large amounts would have been wasted by the time absence of biometric data confirms non-existence(every card is expected to cost Rs.30 at the most conservative estimate.)

Although I wanted to elucidate the technological aspects of the smart card as well in this post,I guess it would make it very long.So if you're more of a tech-oriented person,watch out for the next and final part of this series.

UID Project :Vision for a new India - I

One of the most ambitious projects announced by the newly elected UPA government is its intention to issue a unique identification number to each citizen of India.Each person is to be issued a smart card carrying basic information such as name,date of birth etc. as well as biometric data such as fingerprints.For the purpose the government has set up a body called the Unique Identification Authority of India and roped in Infosys co-founder Nandan Nilekani to head the body.To enable him to pursue his task in a hassle-free manner,he has been given the rank of a Cabinet Minister and given full freedom to choose his own team members-whether from the private or the public sector.It is estimated that the project is going to cost the exchequer 1.5 lakh crores.The first phase is expected to be rolled out in 18 months and 10,000 crores have been earmarked for the same.This phase would cover the beneficiaries of various social sector programmes being run by the government such as the NREGA.

The purposes behind this massive exercise are multiple:

1.)It is expected that the biometric system will help identify and target in a better manner the intended beneficiaries of various government schemes and subsidy programmes such as the NREGA,Public Distribution System and the myriad BPL schemes.At the moment,we have a comic(and outrageous!) situation where the total number of ration cards and BPL cards far exceed the number of people entitled to them.According to Mr.Swaminathan Ankleswar Aiyar,a TOI columnist,we have 223 million ration cards issued against a entitled population of 180 million and 80 million BPL cards issued against an entitled population of 65 million.(Data for the no. of eligible beneficiaries comes from government's own surveys.)In the state of Karnataka alone,the number of BPL card beneficiaries far exceeds the state's entire population,let alone the number of BPL families!!What this basically implies is the existence of 'phantoms' as Mr.Nilekani puts it in his book 'Imagining India'.These are people who exist only on paper i.e either they never were or are long dead.Also taking advantage are people who don't qualify for these benefits. These phantoms are often a creation of the authorities and shopkeepers who use them as a tool to siphon off the subsidised rice,wheat,kerosene and sugar from the allotted quota and sell them in the open market at market rates.As a result PDS is now a totally rotten system with leakages exceeding 50%.Its a double whammy for the state- subsidised goods don't reach the intended beneficiaries and oil marketing companies end up making massive losses on kerosene which is heavily used for transport in place of diesel since subsidised kerosene is much cheaper than diesel. More on the PDS in a later post.The smart card along with a simultaneous drive to increase penetration of banking services in rural India would allow the government to transfer subsidies in cash form to the entitled by depositing them in their accounts,thus eliminating all levels of interaction in between and by implication pilferages.The smart card reader at the outlet providing the subsidised service or good to the consumer would deduct the amount from his account thus ensuring that the cash is not spent on anything it's not intended for.

2.)It is the intention of the government to ensure that the relationship between the state and citizens be made as little traumatizing as possible for the latter by making the process transparent.As of now,the implementation of any scheme and flow of funds is completely at the mercy of corrupt and immoral bureaucrats.The authority levels are too many which ensures that of every rupee spent on the poor,only 5 paise reach them.A smart card linking each citizen to a national database will ensure that they are getting their due since each transaction will be recorded using the card. Bureaucrats won't be able to sit pretty by distributing funds merely on paper.

3.)It will force the government to acknowledge the plight of the poor and helpless by forcing it to acknowledge their 'existence'.The government would no longer be able to draw a veil over large-scale poverty and destitution by simply ignoring the as of now nameless poor.This in turn would force it to ensure that they are provided for.

4.)It will help to check large-scale illegal immigration in India from countries such as Bangladesh.According to estimates there are more than 2 crore Bangladeshis illegally residing in the country.These immigrants not only place a strain on the nation's resources,a large number of them are a serious security threat as well.Ditto for Pakistani intelligence agents,terrorists and other illegal citizens known in diplomatic parlance as 'aliens'.

5.)Citizens will be saved the hassle of carrying on their person a number of different documents such as passport,ration card,PAN card,voter ID card,birth certificate,caste certificate,driving license etc. for different purposes.

6.)It will help in making financial transactions much more transparent,eliminate instances of holding bank accounts using multiple PANs,expose fake voters and fake government employees.Surprised by that last bit,eh?Be prepared to receive the shock of your life by the next few lines.Recently in Delhi,where I've been staying for the last couple of months,a shocking scandal came to light.It has been discovered that 45,000 employees of the Municipal Corporation of Delhi(MCD)are non-existent(are either dead,fictitious or drawing salaries as government employees without working apart from pursuing regular professions).For the past 20 years,salaries and perks were being regularly drawn against their names.These employees were mostly appointed to lower level posts such as sweepers, gardeners etc.Despite repeated complaints by citizens of absence of these workers from their jobs,little or no action was taken by higher authorities.Not surprising considering that these officers were receiving a cut from those salaries to keep their mouth shut!What finally let the cat out of the bag was the municipal commissioner's decision to issue biometric identity cards to employees for attendance purposes.The cards were supposed to be issued when the employees came to give their attendance.Since the phantom employees' attendance used to be marked by the attendance officer himself, the fraud wasn't exposed for a lot of years.When these fictional employees didn't collect their cards,the matter came out into the public domain.There was an immediate uproar and some of the employees reported to work.People in some localities got the shock of their lives when they saw their washerman,gardener or local printer of many years sweeping streets early in the morning!!This shows the power of technology in improving civic facilities and making the government and its employees accountable to the people and gives a peek into what the future might hold for us if the unique ID card project becomes a success.

7.)Transparency in financial transactions i.e. being able to put a name to each transaction taking place will help in detection of financial activities of terrorist and militant organizations,atleast those which are taking place through legal channels.A year back or so,National Security Advisor M.K.Narayan had admitted that terrorist organizations had been active in the stock market.Not only that,a number of sympathisers of these organizations regularly send money through legal banking channels apart from the more popular and illegal hawala route.Being able to track these payments would help in choking supply of funds to these unscrupulous elements.

Howsoever well meaning the intentions of the project may be,the challenge of implementing it on the ground is enormous.By Nilekani's own admission,he expects it to be a challenge greater than he's ever faced when he says,"I'm supposed to work with 600 different departments of the government,no two of which ever work together."
There are a number of factors,circumstances and forces which will test Nilekani's resilience,perseverance and determination as he goes about his task.In the next post I intend to discuss some of the potential bottlenecks,possible misuses of the card as well as provide a detailed description of the technological aspects of the smart card and its supporting infrastructure.