Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Battle for the Black Gold

   Saw an excellent documentary yesterday-"The Battle for Oil- China vs the US". It pretty much sums up all the political, economic, geographical and strategic factors at play today over this precious resource and the dangerous future that lies ahead if an alternative isn't found soon.

   The US is the biggest consumer of oil in the world and imports two thirds of its requirements-all this despite being the third largest producer in the world behind Saudi Arabia and Russia-and on the whole consumes one quarter of the total world production. China's economy has grown sevenfold ever since it took the road to capitalism and needs massive amounts of oil to sustain itself.At present 50% of the requirement is met through domestic production and the rest is imported but it's projected that very soon it shall have to import two-thirds of its needs. As a result the Chinese have been on a buying spree around the world trying to ensure long term supplies of oil to feed their industries and have gone out of their way to woo African and Latin American countries. China's main suppliers of oil from Africa are Sudan and Chad and from Latin America it's Venezuela. Unlike their western counterparts the Chinese attach no strings in dealing with these countries. They make it quite clear that all they want to do is business and steer clear of meddling in the internal politics and affairs of these nations. They invest massively in the infrastructure sector- building roads, bridges, railway stations and airports- and provide huge loans on easy terms to these countries. They deal with the government and not its people which leaves the former to use the oil revenues in any which way it might wish. In short, windfall oil revenues are no guarantee of improvement in the lives of the people.If the regime is rogue and corrupt there's little that can be done.

    On the other hand the US has been trying to make inroads in Africa too but since the government is not directly involved the private corporations are unable to match the monetary power of the Chinese who do business through state-owned entities and are therefore able to commit massive government funds. Also the Chinese have been encroaching upon traditional US turf by getting Venezuela to commit a major chunk of its production to China.Before Hugo Chavez came to power in Venezuela, the regime was US-friendly but now the new socialist regime is less kindly disposed towards the US-infact Chavez loses no opportunity to lambast George Bush and his policies in public and is trying to forge an anti-US coalition within Latin America to further harm its interests. On the other hand, China is also getting friendly with Iran which has been at loggerheads with the US for quite some time now over its nuclear ambitions. It has used its muscle in the Security Council to oppose any sanctions proposed on Iran by the US and has in turn been rewarded with oil. China's unique status as the sole Asian country with the veto power attracts the oil-rich anti-US countries to an alliance with it. China has also prevented any action against Sudanese government for its atrocities in Southern Sudan and Darfur. These are the oil-rich regions of the country and government raised, funded and backed Arab Janjaweed militias have been carrying out a vicious genocide campaign against the tribes in this region. These tribesmen are either non-Arab Muslims or pagan worshippers. Either way, the Arabs don't care. Considering that 85% of Sudanese oil is exported to China, the stakes are too high for China to let the international community take action against Omar-al Bashar, the Sudanese premier who has been convicted of genocide by the International Court.

   Another piece in this game of chess is Taiwan. It's an island country whose independence is recognized by very few nations of the world as a result of Chinese pressure. Chad, which formerly recognized Taiwan as an independent country has now changed its stance to support China under diplomatic pressure as well as coercive tactics(China was fuelling insurgency in the border areas of Chad)China has for years been threatening military action if Taiwan were to issue a formal declaration of independence. On the other hand, the US has pledged to protect it in event of a Chinese aggression. More than anything else control of Taiwan is important to China from a strategic point of view. Most of China's oil comes by sea and in the event of a crisis Taiwan would be China's Achilles' Heel and it would be at the mercy of the US navy for the latter controls the Taiwan Strait which lies on one of the main oil routes supplying all of East Asia. Therefore China is not only investing heavily in a blue water navy but also trying to build enough pipeline capacity to bring oil through ground from Russia, Kazakhastan etc. All the same,  control over Taiwan would give it the right to control the Taiwan Strait itself than allowing the US to do it thus eliminating threat of a blockade during war.

    There was also an attempt two years back by a Chinese oil company to take over the US oil company Unocal as a perfectly legitimate corporate acquisition which raised a storm in the US political and strategic circles. It was touted as an issue of national security and was blocked. Having failed to meet its needs through acquisitions China intensified its search of oil in other areas of the world.

   However, some years down the line, with the ever growing demand for energy this quest is set to intensify much more and might even result in wars being fought for control of oil supplies. The US can neither tell China and India to contain their growth nor agree to consume less and leave more for others. The problem is with the pie-its size is fixed and cannot grow. Although rapid advances in technology has made it economically viable to exploit reserves of heavy crude as well, its nothing more than a stop-gap solution. The bottomline is- unless we manage to discover an alternate source of energy capable of meeting all our energy needs, we are staring at a bloody future ahead of us for in the face of dwindling supplies, wars will become inevitable. Already energy security is the prime motivating factor for a number of existing strategic alliances in the world and as new players come into the picture, realignments are most likely to be based around energy concerns. 

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